Tony Predictions Part 3- The Main Events!

So it all comes down to this. The Tonys are days away. All the votes are in (I think, I can't imagine them being due any later than today, since they have to be tabulated before Sunday night), and all that are left for me to predict and complain about are the biggies. The Best productions of the year. In many ways, these are the easiest to predict this year, so this'll probably be a mercifully short post, with little commentary. I'll post a wrap up after the ceremonies to see how I did, and with my thoughts on the show itself, including the talented host Neil Patrick Harris.

Best Play

Dividing the Estate (0 Predicting)
God of Carnage (14 Predicting) W
Reasons to Be Pretty (0 Predicting) S, DH
33 Variations (0 Predicting)

Commentary: The star-studded, sold-out, physical feat that is God of Carnage, written by French author Yasmina Razbek, is definitely the front-runner here. It's a bit of a slight play, but the excellent direction and performances pick it up to make it a reported great deal of fun, and audiences are flocking to it. Reasons is definitely the underdog, but a lot of people feel it is more deserving and the producers are pushing its American author and production team as a plus. Dividing could conceivably pull it out as the last play of Horton Foote, but the show has been closed for a while and is likely out of the voters minds. 33 Variations had a lot of problems and doesn't have the momentum to take it out. I am happy with this batch of nominees, I don't think any other original plays were strong enough this season to take out the nominees.

Best Musical

Billy Elliot, The Musical (14 Predicting) W
Next to Normal (0 Predicting) DH
Rock of Ages (0 Predicting)
Shrek The Musical (0 Predicting) S

Commentary: Billy's had this in the bag from day one. It's the perfect combination of artistic merit and crowd-pleasing tourist-drawing spectacle that there's little opportunity for anyone to sneak in from behind. N2N has all the artistic snobs on its side and would be an upset similar to Avenue Q over Wicked, but Billy does have enough quality in it to appeal to a wide-ranging crowd of voters. Rock of Ages isn't ambitious enough, and Shrek's perceived as too corporate and uneven. I've almost gotten over Rock of Ages being included over [title of show], which just doesn't make sense in terms of artistic merit, but I guess it does on a business level. Heck, I would've been happy to see 9 to 5 or maybe even 13 over Rock of Ages, who is pretty much only on Broadway so that the upcoming film will have a better pedigree. Can you tell I'm bitter?

Best Revival of a Play

Joe Turner’s Come and Gone (1 Predicting) DH
Mary Stuart (0 Predicting)
The Norman Conquests (13 Predicting) W
Waiting for Godot (0 Predicting) S

Commentary: This is by far the years toughest category in terms of coming up with a nomination list. The category could've been twice as big and still left worthy competitors out of the running. Equus, The Seagull, Blithe Spirit, All My Sons, Exit the King, Speed-the-Plow, and Desire Under the Elms all would have been worthy of being in the running, but sadly there's only 4 slots. My picks would have put Exit the King, Godot, All My Sons and (if I had seen it, likely) Norman Conquests, but I have little to complain about in terms of unworthy pieces being in those spots. As far as winning goes, though, it's not much of a contest. Norman is not only impressive on a technical standpoint, artistically it's one of the best productions of the year, and it got unanimous raves from every critic ever, even a few of the dead ones. I personally was not as touched by any show this year more than Godot, but I didn't get to see Norman, so it seems that it will have to be happy as a nominee.

Best Revival of a Musical

Guys and Dolls (0 Predicting)
Hair (14 Predicting) W, S
Pal Joey (0 Predicting)
West Side Story (0 Predicting) DH

Commentary: This is an easy one to call. No other musical this season has been received as joyfully as Hair, and the audiences have been going crazy for the revival of the classic 60s rock musical. Pal Joey and especially Guys and Dolls were only nominated by default, since only 4 musical revivals opened this season, and West Side Story has its detractors, so the sun shines on the talented group behind Hair.

Best Special Theatrical Event

Liza’s at The Palace (11 Predicting) W, S
Slava’s Snowshow (1 Predicting)
Soul of Shaolin (0 Predicting)
You’re Welcome America. A Final Night with George W. Bush (0 Predicting) DH

Commentary: Liza's got this one in the bag, since she's got the hardest work ethic on Broadway and certainly knows how to please all the big theatre fans. Will Ferrell's one man show has a slim chance of overtaking her since it was so successful, but I really don't think that anyone can top Liza in a theatre award, no matter how many times she gets called a communist. (Side note: how awesome would a Liza/Will Ferrell hosted telecast have been? I mean, I love NPH, but that would have been must see TV, right there!)



Well, that about does it for the predictions. I hope you enjoyed my take on things, and that you feel at least a bit better informed about what's going to happen on Sunday night. And I REALLY hope you'll be watching the awards. They could use all the support they can get!