- Who WILL win (W)
- Who's the DARK HORSE (DH)
- Who SHOULD win (S)
- Who's missing off of the list
In addition to that, I'm also going to be pulling from several different websites which feature their own Tony predictions, and I'll show you how many predict each nominee in each category as well. For example:
Category
Nominee A (5 Predicting)
Nominee B (2 Predicting)
Nominee C (6 Predicting)
Nominee D (0 Predicting)
The websites I'm pulling alternate predictions from are:
- GoldDerby.com Pundits (found here): Melissa Bernardo (contributor, Entertainment Weekly) Martin Denton (NYTheatre.com), Robert Diamond (BroadwayWorld.com), Susan Haskins (Theater Talk), Leonard Jacobs (ClydeFitchReport.com), Brian LiptonTheaterMania.com), Tom O'Neil (TheEnvelope.com), David Sheward (Back Stage), Matt Windman (AMNewYork), Wayman Wong (New York Daily News)
- NY Times Critics Picks (found here): Ben Brantley (Chief Drama Critic), Charles Isherwood (Secondary Drama Critic)
- Time Out New York Tony Awards Preview (found here):
I urge you to check out those links if you want any more detail or thoughts on their picks. They all have more detail on the sites than I'm including here.
So without further ado, here's tonight's predictions:
Best Book of a Musical
Billy Elliot, The Musical; Lee Hall (12 Predicting) W
Next to Normal; Brian Yorkey (1 Predicting)
Shrek The Musical; David Lindsay-Abaire (1 Predicting)
[Title of Show]; Hunter Bell (0 Predicting) S, DH
Commentary: This is a tough category. I found N2N's book to be incredibly overrated and spotty, so I don't think it really deserves the spot, but I can't think of anything I saw that deserves to be there in its place. Perhaps 9 to 5? I never saw it, but Patricia Resnick adapted it from her own script to the original movie. This is the only category [tos] ever had a chance to win in, and it's its only nomination, so if the Tony voters want to show it any support, it'll be in this category.
Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
Billy Elliot, The Musical; Music: Elton John, Lyrics: Lee Hall (9 Predicting) DH
Next to Normal; Music: Tom Kitt Lyrics: Brian Yorkey (4 Predicting) W
9 to 5: The Musical; Music & Lyrics: Dolly Parton (0 Predicting)
Shrek The Musical; Music: Jeanine Tesori, Lyrics: David Lindsay-Abaire (0 Predicting) S
Commentary: My favorite score of the season is the surprisingly clever and varied Shrek, but it is a bit uneven and it's probably got the least chance of winning, unfortunately. N2N has a great rock score, but the poor lyrics from Brian Yorkey pull it down, but many voters and critics seem to disagree with me on that fact, so it's definitely got the edge, plus this is a category that likes to honor offbeat or smaller shows. Billy's score is its weakest aspect, but it could ride the sweep to victory. 9 to 5 has a chance, since it's Dolly, but the whole show was largely snubbed by the Nominating Committee, and the entire show was poorly received by critics, so it doesn't have much momentum. I do wish Jeff Bowen's heartfelt and wide ranging score (and with only a keyboard and four singers!) had been recognized, but I never got my hopes up too much, so I'm not incredibly disappointed.
Best Scenic Design of a Play
Dale Ferguson; Exit the King (0 Predicting) DH
Rob Howell; The Norman Conquests (2 Predicting)
Derek McLane; 33 Variations (9 Predicting) W, S
Michael Yeargan; Joe Turner’s Come and Gone (0 Predicting)
Commentary: Not much to say in this one. 33 Variations had a really cool music motif with its set, and really tied itself in with the theme of the show. Exit the King had a very haunting background and really set the mood of absurdity. Haven't seen the others, but from photos I've seen they're fairly standard, nothing too exciting. I would have liked to see Godot in there, but I don't know which I would take out, so I'm not too devastated.
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Robert Brill; Guys and Dolls (0 Predicting) DH
Ian MacNeil; Billy Elliot, The Musical (11 Predicting) W, S
Scott Pask; Pal Joey (0 Predicting)
Mark Wendland; Next to Normal (0 Predicting)
Commentary: Billy's is the most impressive of the lot, with its rising bedroom from underneath the stage, and it certainly has the widest range of locations to show off. Nobody else really has the support, although Guys and Dolls certainly has flash and glitz on their side. The real puzzle, though, is the absence of Shrek, who could have WON the category with its impressive scenery.
Best Costume Design of a Play
Dale Ferguson; Exit the King (1 Predicting)
Jane Greenwood; Waiting for Godot (0 Predicting)
Martin Pakledinaz; Blithe Spirit (2 Predicting) W, S
Anthony Ward; Mary Stuart (7 Predicting) DH
Commentary: Mary Stuart's got a concept on its side (all the men wear modern business attire, the women wear period dress), but I think the daffy costumes of Madame Arcarti and the sleek ghost stylings of Elvira have the edge.
Best Costume Design of a Musical
Gregory Gale; Rock of Ages (0 Predicting)
Nicky Gillibrand; Billy Elliot, The Musical (0 Predicting) DH
Tim Hatley; Shrek The Musical (11 Predicting) W, S
Michael McDonald; Hair (0 Predicting)
Commentary: Shrek's varied and fun fairy tale creatures, plus the fantastic transformation of Brian D'Arcy James mean that Shrek's got this one in the bag, unless for some reason voters REALLY want a total Billy sweep.
Best Lighting Design of a Play
David Hersey; Equus (8 Predicting) W
David Lander; 33 Variations (2 Predicting) S, DH
Brian MacDevitt; Joe Turner’s Come and Gone (1 Predicting)
Hugh Vanstone; Mary Stuart (0 Predicting)
Commentary: Lighting and Scenic often go hand in hand, so 33's interesting dramatic lighting has a chance, but likely the striking and dramatic Equus, who was otherwise overlooked in many categories, will pull of a win (and yes, I do see the irony of Equus not being the dark HORSE, but the favorite). Missing: the cool Exit the King, which featured bare light bulbs above the audience in several locations, effectively pulling the audience into the world of King Berenger.
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Kevin Adams; Hair (1 Predicting) W, S
Kevin Adams; Next to Normal (0 Predicting) DH
Howell Binkley; West Side Story (0 Predicting)
Rick Fisher; Billy Elliot, The Musical (10 Predicting)
Commentary: I'm surprised I split so much from the other pundits, but I suppose they just figure it will go along with the Billy sweep. I think, though, that the bright and snazzy Hair lighting, or the dark and moody N2N will take it.
Best Sound Design of a Play
Paul Arditti; Mary Stuart (0 Predicting)
Gregory Clarke; Equus (0 Predicting) DH
Russell Goldsmith; Exit the King (10 Predicting) W, S
Scott Lehrer and Leon Rothenberg; Joe Turner’s Come and Gone (1 Predicting)
Commentary: There was a lot of good sound design in Exit the King, since there was a haunting single trumpet, and a cool reel to reel recorder turning in one of the boxes to provide a great background. Equus was also very evocative, with a lot of dark underscore, but it's probably to old to be remembered.
Best Sound Design of a Musical
Acme Sound Partners; Hair (2 Predicting)
Paul Arditti; Billy Elliot, The Musical (8 Predicting) W, S
Peter Hylenski; Rock of Ages (1 Predicting)
Brian Ronan; Next to Normal (0 Predicting) DH
Commentary: Billy's sweep is likely to include this new (it's its second year) category, as voters may be unfamiliar with what exactly the sound design includes in a musical. N2N may have an edge for its critics darling aspect, but I don't think that it will overcome the Billy juggernaut.
Best Direction of a Play
Phyllida Lloyd; Mary Stuart (0 Predicting)
Bartlett Sher; Joe Turner’s Come and Gone (0 Predicting) DH
Matthew Warchus; God of Carnage (4 Predicting)
Matthew Warchus; The Norman Conquests (9 Predicting) W
Commentary: Warchus definitely had his work cut out for him with Norman, what with it actually being three full length plays. If he splits the votes for himself too much, look for Sher, last years musical director winner for South Pacific, to get it for his lauded take on Joe Turner. I do with both Exit the King and Godot had been nominated, as the direction was part of what made those absurdist comedies so accessible, but I unfortunately haven't seen any of the nominees here, so I can't say what I would lose.
Best Direction of a Musical
Stephen Daldry; Billy Elliot, The Musical (12 Predicting) W, S
Michael Greif; Next to Normal (0 Predicting)
Kristin Hanggi; Rock of Ages (0 Predicting)
Diane Paulus; Hair (1 Predicting) DH
Commentary: Hair can certainly be difficult, and by all accounts Paulus is the main reason the current incarnation is so successful, but Billy's Daldry has a great pedigree, the power of the Billy behemoth, and the fact that he has directed a LOT of kids to give such great performances behind him. Would have liked to see Shrek's Moore recognized for tying so many elements together in place of Hanggi, but that's a small complaint.
Best Choreography
Karole Armitage; Hair (0 Predicting)
Andy Blankenbuehler; 9 to 5: The Musical (0 Predicting) DH
Peter Darling; Billy Elliot, The Musical (11 Predicting) W, S
Randy Skinner; Irving Berlin’s White Christmas (0 Predicting)
Commentary: This is the one category which Billy has pretty much had from day 1, and I doubt even last year's darling Blankenbuehler can defeat him. Billy's choreography is painfully evocative and at the forefront of the story. It could win even without the magnificent miners and police in "Solidarity" based on the power of the Act 1 closer, "Angry Dance", but it has a lot of dance going for it and it really cannot be stopped.
Best Orchestrations
Larry Blank; Irving Berlin’s White Christmas (0 Predicting)
Martin Koch; Billy Elliot, The Musical (10 Predicting)W
Michael Starobin and Tom Kitt; Next to Normal (1 Predicting)
Danny Troob and John Clancy; Shrek The Musical (0 Predicting) S, DH
Commentary: Shrek's got the biggest orchestra and the widest range of sound from jaunty ukulele filled tunes, to heavy guitar infused anthems, while Billy has to compensate for a somewhat lackluster score and has a great deal of majesty and power. The Billy tidal wave will take another one here, although a dark dark horse of N2N's evocative 6 person band could take it away from both of them. I actually would have liked to see Jason Robert Brown's 13 here instead of White Christmas, since it was impressively played by an all teenager band, and was the best part of the otherwise inconsequential show, but it's no big complaint.
No comments:
Post a Comment