Tony Predictions Part 2- Performances!

Here we are again, time for more fun filled, Tony predicting, knee slapping good times! Today's categories are all the leading and supporting acting categories, and there are eight in total. (4 for plays, 4 for musicals). Some of the categories are pretty clear cut, others are a crap shoot, but all are filled with the potential for high quality entertainment!

Check out yesterday's post for the format of my predictions and what everything means. As a reminder, check out the sites posted in that blog for other detailed predictions from those much older and wiser than myself.

That's about it, here we go!


Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play

Jeff Daniels; God of Carnage (0 Predicting)
Raúl Esparza; Speed-the-Plow (0 Predicting) DH
James Gandolfini; God of Carnage (0 Predicting)
Geoffrey Rush; Exit the King (13 Predicting) W, S
Thomas Sadoski; Reasons to Be Pretty (0 Predicting)

Commentary: This is an easy call. Rush's delicious, delirious, over the top performance is the stuff Tonys are made of, and he is magnificent in Exit the King. Kudos to him, by the way, for bringing attention to a little known Ionesco play which isn't something the average tourist would jump to go see right away. Esparza's going to have to wait at least one more year for his shiny statue, but he should be happy to join Boyd Gaines in the 4 timer nomination club, one in each of the male acting categories, which is quite a feat in itself (sidenote: how awesome is it to picture Raul and Boyd hanging out and actually forming a club over their accomplishments? Methinks it would make a great sitcom!). Sadoski is too new and unknown, and I think the Carnage men will split their vote, so even if they had the momentum, they couldn't make it. Missing in this category: Daniel Radcliffe for his amazing breakthrough performance in Equus, who drew me in and didn't let me go, and Bill Irwin's alternately haunting and hilarious performance as Vladimir in Waiting for Godot, who is in the same lane as Rush, making an absurdist character full and real.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play

Hope Davis; God of Carnage (0 Predicting)
Jane Fonda; 33 Variations (0 Predicting) S, DH
Marcia Gay Harden; God of Carnage (12 Predicting) W
Janet McTeer; Mary Stuart (1 Predicting)
Harriet Walter; Mary Stuart (0 Predicting)

Commentary: Don't let the predictions up there fool you, this is one category that's wide open and full of deserving nominees. I wouldn't be surprised if Fonda took it after the other four each split with their partners from each play, and she's so excited to be nominated (see Broadway.com's Nominee Survey question 2 for her awesome declaration of competitiveness), plus she was really very good in 33 Variations (heck, she got me to cry). Supposedly Harden has the bigger role of Carnage (despite Davis's projectile vomiting), so she's the favorite, but I think this race is wide open for anyone to take the lead. I do wish the amazing and heartbreaking Diane Wiest had been nominated for her role in All My Sons, and I also think Kristin Scott Thomas deserved a nomination for her great work in The Seagull (a revival I otherwise wasn't that enchanted by), but they have been forgotten since their shows are no longer running.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical

David Alvarez, Trent Kowalik, and Kiril Kulish; Billy Elliot, The Musical (12 Predicting) W
Gavin Creel; Hair (0 Predicting)
Brian d’Arcy James; Shrek The Musical (1 Predicting) S, DH
Constantine Maroulis; Rock of Ages (0 Predicting)
J. Robert Spencer; Next to Normal (1 Predicting)

Commentary: I disagree with the committee's decision to nominate all 3 Billy boys as one, but unfortunately that is the cards we have been dealt, and their amazing dancing, along with competent acting and singing seem poised to grant them the victory. James is the heart of Shrek, and if there's any backlash among voter for the fact that the role of Billy was nominated and not the actor, the votes will likely go to him for a surprising, beautifully quiet performance underneath mounds of prosthetics and makeup. American Idol reject Maroulis is very lucky to be nominated, but the other 2 are fairly deserving of their slots, even if they have little chance of winning. I think Jame Barbour, who was reportedly excellent in A Tale of Two Cities, probably deserves a nomination, but I didn't see it, so I can't vouch for it myself.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical

Stockard Channing; Pal Joey (0 Predicting)
Sutton Foster; Shrek The Musical (0 Predicting) S
Allison Janney; 9 to 5: The Musical (0 Predicting) DH
Alice Ripley; Next to Normal (14 Predicting) W
Josefina Scaglione; West Side Story (0 Predicting)

Commentary: Ripley is the anchor of N2N and is the talk of the town, to boot. The only thing standing between her and a win for her powerhouse of a performance is overhyping, but I don't think it'll be too great to give the award to Janney for her light comedic showing. I was totally charmed by Foster, who managed to carry off farts and belches surprisingly well, and who wins me over more and more with every interview I see of her, but she doesn't stand a chance against the Rip.

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play

John Glover; Waiting for Godot (1 Predicting) S, DH
Zach Grenier; 33 Variations (0 Predicting)
Stephen Mangan; The Norman Conquests (1 Predicting)
Paul Ritter; The Norman Conquests (0 Predicting)
Roger Robinson; Joe Turner’s Come and Gone (12 Predicting) W

Commentary: Glover's quiet magnificence in his 3 page monologue and physical performance were transcendent and illuminating, offering many possibilities for audience interpretation and contemplation. He and Grenier are the only 2 of the lot that I've actually seen, and while Grenier did a fine job as an increasingly frustrated Beethoven, it wasn't enough of a role to put him over the top. Robinson will likely take the prize as a representative of Turner's finely tuned ensemble. I would've hoped for a John Goodman nomination as well, but unfortunately he was not recognized for his excellent work in Godot.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play

Hallie Foote; Dividing the Estate (0 Predicting) DH
Jessica Hynes; The Norman Conquests (0 Predicting)
Marin Ireland; Reasons to Be Pretty (0 Predicting)
Angela Lansbury; Blithe Spirit (14 Predicting) W, S
Amanda Root; The Norman Conquests (0 Predicting)

Commentary: Angela is simply dotty to perfection in Blithe, injecting a great deal of manic energy that would be impressive for somebody much younger than herself. Hallie Foot has a slight chance for her interpretation of her recently deceased father's latest play, but Angela is so beloved and showy that it's hard to see her not being called to get her latest trophy.

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical

David Bologna; Billy Elliot, The Musical (0 Predicting)
Gregory Jbara; Billy Elliot, The Musical (10 Predicting) DH
Marc Kudisch; 9 to 5: The Musical (1 Predicting)
Christopher Sieber; Shrek The Musical (1 Predicting) W, S
Will Swenson; Hair (2 Predicting)

Commentary: Sieber's role is liked even by detractors of Shrek, and it is one that certainly calls attention to itself. Playing the whole show on his knees, while still managing to bring down the house, his performance as Farquaad is one of the best parts of Shrek. Jbara does have a lot of support for his performance and goodwill due to his solid, steady career (this is surprisingly his first nomination), but many feel his role is too one dimensional. He may be caught up in the Billy sweep, and I wouldn't be disappointed if he won (he seems like a really cool guy in his Broadway.com backstage video diaries). Kudisch and Swenson do both have a shot, but I think the Tony will ultimately be awarded to the little scene stealer.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical

Jennifer Damiano; Next to Normal (0 Predicting)
Haydn Gwynne; Billy Elliot, The Musical (4 Predicting)
Karen Olivo; West Side Story (10 Predicting) W, S
Martha Plimpton; Pal Joey (0 Predicting) DH
Carole Shelley; Billy Elliot, The Musical (0 Predicting)

Commentary: Gwynne is certainly good, but I don't think that her role is strong enough to take the award unless voter just automatically check off anything Billy. Olivo is reportedly the best thing about WSS, and everybody loves a great Anita, so she will likely easily walk off with the statue. Plimpton was also reportedly the best thing about and otherwise mediocre production, and she also has the benefit of surprising all the voters with a breakthrough into musicals. I wish the [tos] ladies had been nominated, particularly Susan, since she isn't exactly the type to get cast in a big Broadway musical and Heidi will likely have many nominations down the road, but for some reason the nominators wanted to include Carole Shelley for her inconsequential character in Billy Elliot.